The 90th Academy Awards – or, as they are more commonly known, the Oscars – are the highest honour a film can receive. There are other awards, sure: the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAGs), the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards (BAFTAs) – the list goes on. Still, the prestige surrounding the Oscars is immense, and the chase for one can be something that defines an actor – just look at Leonardo DiCaprio until just last year.

Of course, the prestige for who wins your yearly viewing party can be just as immense, so who doesn’t want a little cheat sheet from time to time? With that in mind, scroll down to check out the projected winners in virtually every category:

Best Picture: The Shape of Water

This, perhaps fittingly after last year’s chaos amongst Moonlight and La La Land, is the tightest race of the evening. Eight nominees sit in this category, and it’s narrowed to four – The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Lady Bird, and Get Out. Really, it can be narrowed even further, as The Shape of Water and Three Billboards have been consistently racking up nominations and wins in that category. I’m going with The Shape of Water here due to the win at the Producers Guild Awards, though if Three Billboards takes it home, it would hardly be an upset.

Best Director: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Perhaps the second safest lock of the night, del Toro is winning here for his brilliant movie. He won Best Director at virtually every awards show for his fantastic movie – the official coronation is on Sunday.

Best Actor: Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour

It’s possible this is the only major award The Darkest Hour picks up tonight, though that’s not uncommon for acting awards. Gary Oldman, perhaps one of the finest actors in Hollywood, is an absolute chameleon, playing everyone from Winston Churchill to a Russian terrorist who blows up Harrison Ford’s Air Force One. He’s so well-known as an actor that he even lampoons himself in an episode of Friends. Well deserved, Mr. Oldman.

Best Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Of the four acting awards, McDormand is the only actor to have already won an Oscar, having won Best Actress in 1996 for Fargo. That’s not to say she’s any less deserving – her performance as a grieving, vengeful mother in Three Billboards is powerful, moving stuff. Saoirse Ronan looked like she once might pull an upset for Lady Bird, but that seems like a distant memory now.

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Usually one of the first Oscars awarded once the ceremony gets underway, this one is a safe bet as well. Rockwell has been snubbed a few times, not getting even a nomination for 2009’s Moon or 2013’s The Way, Way Back, and it looks like here he’ll get some recognition for his turn as a violent, racist police officer in rural Missouri.

Best Supporting Actress: Alison Janney, I, Tonya

If there’s one acting award that could feasibly suffer an upset, it’s this one. Janney, playing Tonya Harding’s abusive, cruel mother, is just fantastic in the role, in a career that would land her in the acting Hall of Fame – if there was such a thing. However, Laurie Metcalf’s role in Lady Bird is one that critics still love, and it could be a way to reward Lady Bird as a consolation prize of sorts, as it’s not expected to win any other Oscars, barring huge upsets.

Best Original Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This is one of those categories that is so stacked, I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of the films win, based on pure merit. Of course, there are always favourites, even in these ones, so I have to pick Three Billboards, mainly because I feel it’s not going to win Best Picture, so this could be another way of voters giving it some (deserved) recognition. Of course, an upset by Jordan Peele’s Get Out would be absolutely stunningly fantastic, too.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name

Based on André Aciman’s 2007 novel of the same name, this is probably the third safest lock of the night. Virtually no other film has a chance here, and it would also make screenwriter James Ivory one of the oldest winners in history at 89 years old.

Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049

Roger Deakins, the Director of Photography for Blade Runner 2049 is long overdue. He probably should have won years ago for any one of his fantastic movies, but somehow has never come through. There could be an upset for Hoyte van Hoytema for Dunkirk, or even Rachel Morrison, the first ever female nominated for this award for Mudbound, but considering Deakins’ legacy, it would be shocking to see him lose yet again.

Dunkirk, once a favourite for Best Picture, has faded when stacked up against the movies listed above, and seems like a sure bet to pick up Film Editing, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing, the elements that director Christopher Nolan used to make it incredibly unique. Costume Design seems destined to go to Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson’s film about making clothes. The 1960s era-inspired The Shape of Water will take home Production Design for the brilliantly designed sets, showing everything from an eclectic artist’s home, to a mute woman’s spartan quarters, to an underground lab bunker (all filmed in Toronto, I might add). The Darkest Hour, meanwhile, will be going home with Best Makeup & Hairstyling after painstakingly turning Gary Oldman into former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill.

Best Visual Effects could go either way between Blade Runner 2049 and War for the Planet of the Apes. I feel the Academy will recognize the amazing work that went into creating the apes in the latter – they are just incredibly realistic. At no point does anyone in the audience even think twice about the fact that they are watching apes sign and grunt to each other for almost two and a half hours, and that alone deserves some recognition (apart from the fact that it’s dazzling digital work, of course). I’d selfishly like Star Wars: The Last Jedi to win here for the ships, space battles, crystal foxes, and more, but realistically, that’s not going to happen.

Remember how I said Call Me By Your Name for Best Adapted Screenplay was the third safest lock of the night, and Guillermo del Toro for Best Director was the second? Well, if I had a million dollars, I’d bet it all on Pixar’s Coco for Best Animated Picture. Probably Pixar’s best offering since Toy Story 3 – possibly even to date, which is really saying something – it is gorgeously, lovingly animated, and tells a moving story to boot. It’s winning that Oscar – let’s move on.

Alexandre Desplat’s charming score for The Shape of Water will add to the film’s accolades with a Best Original Score win – and to his own, after he won the same award just a few years ago for 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel. Finally, Best Original Song will likely go to Coco for ‘Remember Me’, sung at different points in the movie by different characters in wildly different styles – to incredibly effect. It’s possible The Greatest Showman takes the upset for ‘This Is Me’, which was featured in NBC’s coverage of the 2018 Winter Olympics, but given that the rest of the film was bogged down by how bad it was, it’s likely the voters will award Disney instead.

If he wins for Call Me By Your Name, James Ivory might not have the distinction of oldest Oscar winner for very long, as Agnès Varda, co-director of Faces Places, is likely going to be heading home a winner for Best Documentary Feature, while it also seems pretty likely that Chilean director Sebastián Lelio A Fantastic Woman will win for Best Foreign Language Film.

The volatility of the ‘shorts’ means that all of these could be entirely wrong, but the truth is, very few people know for sure which one will win. I’m going with Edith+Eddie for Best Documentary Short, DeKalb Elementary for Best Live Action Short, and Dear Basketball for Best Animated Short, an animated version of the poem basketball legend Kobe Bryant penned for his retirement.

Full List of Predictions:

Best Picture: The Shape of Water
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Best Actor: Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
Best Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actress: Alison Janney, I, Tonya
Best Original Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
Best Film Editing: Dunkirk
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: The Darkest Hour
Best Visual Effects: War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Animated Picture: Coco
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: Remember Me, Coco
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Documentary Feature: Faces Places
Best Documentary Short: Edith+Eddie
Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball
Best Live Action Short: DeKalb Elementary

The 90th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 4th at 8:00 p.m. EST.

You can find Shoaib Alli on Twitter (@SNSAlli) for more thoughts about the Oscars, games, and more.